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Brief Communication Climatic Covariates for the Frequency Analysis of Heavy Rainfall in the Mediterranean Region : Volume 11, Issue 9 (15/09/2011)

By Tramblay, Y.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004017645
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 6
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Brief Communication Climatic Covariates for the Frequency Analysis of Heavy Rainfall in the Mediterranean Region : Volume 11, Issue 9 (15/09/2011)  
Author: Tramblay, Y.
Volume: Vol. 11, Issue 9
Language: English
Subject: Science, Natural, Hazards
Collection: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection
Subcollection: Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2011
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

Description
Description: Hydrosciences Montpellier, UMR5569, CNRS – IRD-UM1-UM2, Université Montpellier 2, Maison des Sciences de l'Eau, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 5, France. In Mediterranean regions, climate studies indicate for the future a possible increase in the extreme rainfall events occurrence and intensity. To evaluate the future changes in the extreme event distribution, there is a need to provide non-stationary models taking into account the non-stationarity of climate. In this study, several climatic covariates are tested in a non-stationary peaks-over-threshold modeling approach for heavy rainfall events in Southern France. Results indicate that the introduction of climatic covariates could improve the statistical modeling of extreme events. In the case study, the frequency of southern synoptic circulation patterns is found to improve the occurrence process of extreme events modeled via a Poisson distribution, whereas for the magnitude of the events, the air temperature and sea level pressure appear as valid covariates for the Generalized Pareto distribution scale parameter. Covariates describing the humidity fluxes at monthly and seasonal time scales also provide significant model improvements for the occurrence and the magnitude of heavy rainfall events. With such models including climatic covariates, it becomes possible to asses the risk of extreme events given certain climatic conditions at monthly or seasonal timescales. The future changes in the heavy rainfall distribution can also be evaluated using covariates computed by climate models.

Summary
Brief communication Climatic covariates for the frequency analysis of heavy rainfall in the Mediterranean region

Excerpt
Beguería, S., Angulo-Martínez, M., Vicente-Serrano, M., López-Moreno, J. I., and El-Kenawy, H.: Assessing trends in extreme precipitation events intensity and magnitude using non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis: a case study in northeast Spain from 1930 to 2006, Int. J. Climatol., doi:10.1002/joc.2218, 2010.; Boissier, L. and Vinet, F.: Paramètres hydroclimatiques et mortalité due aux crues torrentielles, Etude dans le sud de la France, in: Actes du 22ème colloque de l'Association Internationale de Climatologie, Geographia Technica, Cluj University Press, Romania, 2009 (in French).; Coles, G. S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Value, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, Germany, 2001.; Coles, S., Perrichi, L. R., and Sisson, S.: A fully probabilistic approach to extreme rainfall modeling, J. Hydrol., 273, 35–50, 2003.; Conte, M., Giuffrida, A., and Tedesco, S.: The Mediterranean Oscillation. Impact on precipitation and hydrology in Italy Climate Water, Publications of the Academy of Finland, Helsinki, 1989.; Funatsu, B. M., Claud, C., and Chaboureau, J. P.: Comparison between the Large-Scale Environments of Moderate and Intense Precipitating Systems in the Mediterranean Region, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 3933�-3959, doi:10.1175/2009MWR2922.1, 2009.; Garavaglia, F., Gailhard, J., Paquet, E., Lang, M., Garçon, R., and Bernardara, P.: Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 951–964, doi:10.5194/hess-14-951-2010, 2010.; Giogi, F. and Lionello, P.: Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region, Glob. Planet. Change, 63, 90–104, 2008.; Goubanova, K. and Li, L.:Extremes in temperature and precipitation around the Mediterranean basin in an ensemble of future climate scenario simulations, Glob. Planet. Change, 57, 27–42, 2007.; Joly, B., Nuissier, O., Ducrocq, V., and Joly, A.: Mediterranean synoptic-scale ingredients involved in heavy precipitations events triggering over southern France: a clustering approach, in: proceeding of ICAM, International conference on alpine meteorology, Chambery, France, 2007.; Katz, R. W., Parlange, M. B., and Naveau, P.: Statistics of extremes in hydrology, Adv. Water Res., 25, 1287–1304, 2002.; Maheras, P., Xoplaki, E., and Kutiel, H.: Wet and dry monthly anomalies across the Mediterranean basin and their relationship with circulation, 1860–1990, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 64, 189–199, 1999.; Nastos, P. T. and Zerefos, C. S.: Decadal changes in extreme daily precipitation in Greece, Adv. Geosci., 16, 55–62, doi:10.5194/adgeo-16-55-2008, 2008.; Paquet, E., Gailhard, J., and Garçon, R.: Evolution of GRADEX method: improvement by atmospheric circulation classification and hydrological modeling, La Houille Blanche, 5, 80–90, 2006.; Pujol, N., Neppel, L., and Sabatier, R.: Regional tests for trend detection in maximum precipitation series in the French Mediterranean region, Hydrol. Sci. J., 52, 956–973, 2007.; Tzavelas, G., Paliatsos, A. G., and Nastos, P. T.: Brief communication Models for the exceedances of high thresholds over the precipitation daily totals in Athens, Greece, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 105-108, doi:10.5194/nhess-10-105-2010, 2010.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., López-Moreno, J. I., El Kenawy, A. M., and Angulo-Martínez, M.: Daily atmospheric circulation events and extreme precipitation risk in northeast Spain: Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Western Mediterranean Oscillation, and the Mediterranean Oscillation, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D08106, doi:10.1029/2008JD011492, 2009.

 

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